@Randem

I remember cringing every time I heard President Bush utter that phrase — “the American dream of homeownership.” It always rubbed me the wrong way. (Sorry, Mr. Bush, The American Dream stands for something much bigger than owning a home.)

So how has that all worked out for us? An op-ed in the New York Times seems to think not:

Owning a home lies at the heart of the American dream.” So declared President Bush in 2002, introducing his “Homeownership Challenge” — a set of policy initiatives that were supposed to sharply increase homeownership, especially for minority groups.

Oops. While homeownership rose as the housing bubble inflated, temporarily giving Mr. Bush something to boast about, it plunged — especially for African-Americans — when the bubble popped. Today, the percentage of American families owning their own homes is no higher than it was six years ago, and it’s a good bet that by the time Mr. Bush leaves the White House homeownership will be lower than it was when he moved in.

Now, as the real-estate market still hasn’t found its bottom, and foreclosures keep coming in, homeownership will be the domain of investors, and I argue that greater percentage of American families will rent, rather than own, when compared to the numbers before Bush decided to take credit for housing.

The Freakonomics Blog takes a look at the early warnings of Itzhak Ben-David, who seems to have seen this whole mess coming a mile away. I wonder why nobody else did.

Woops. April Fools.

Recent headlines have trumpeted the 2.9% increase in housing sales for February as an indication (aimed at people like me) that the housing market is back. But this is cherry-picking data at its finest. This is month-over-month data, which The Street knows is not the whole picture:

Year-over-year February sales were down nearly 24%, which hardly seems to paint a picture of a market that is luring back buying. But since the Journal used the word “lure” and is talking about a near-term development, let’s look at those January to February numbers in the proper perspective. Remember: we need to see whether there is a typical seasonality to them. And guess what! There is. Over the past four year, February sales have been more than 7 times greater than January sales. That means this year was less than half as good.

Wait a second… so if I’m understanding this correctly, that 2.9% increase is really a phenomenal decrease, when compared to last year’s month-over-month data. If this was a stock, that would be a flashing red light to “sell! sell! sell!”

What were people thinking?