The housing market is back
Woops. April Fools.
Recent headlines have trumpeted the 2.9% increase in housing sales for February as an indication (aimed at people like me) that the housing market is back. But this is cherry-picking data at its finest. This is month-over-month data, which The Street knows is not the whole picture:
Year-over-year February sales were down nearly 24%, which hardly seems to paint a picture of a market that is luring back buying. But since the Journal used the word “lure” and is talking about a near-term development, let’s look at those January to February numbers in the proper perspective. Remember: we need to see whether there is a typical seasonality to them. And guess what! There is. Over the past four year, February sales have been more than 7 times greater than January sales. That means this year was less than half as good.
Wait a second… so if I’m understanding this correctly, that 2.9% increase is really a phenomenal decrease, when compared to last year’s month-over-month data. If this was a stock, that would be a flashing red light to “sell! sell! sell!”
Tags: finance, housing bubble