@Randem

Well, I hit the #3 spot on HumorPowerTips for my response to a recent write-in joke theme. But #3 isn’t a winner, it’s the second loser. Now I’m going to be training like Rocky, eating raw eggs, tying my feet together while I chase chickens across the road, slipping the jab with my punchlines… Next month, victory will be mine! Muuaaaahhahahaahaahah!!!!!

Hillary Clinton may have won three of the big states last Tuesday, but it’s not states that count, it’s delgates. She continues to lag in delegates, and now it’s mathematically impossible for her to win the nomination by the agreed rules. Nevertheless she continues to keep the drama rolling.

So now we have Clinton and Obama clawing and scratching at each other while McCain sits pat. McCain now has the luxury of proactively winning more support while the Democratic contenders do all his dirty work for him. For the Democratic Party, this is a horrible strategic mistake.

This draws a nice parallel to another of history’s big rivalries: that between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Let me elaborate…

Just like two parties, both the Packers and the Bears are hoping to find the new leader. On one side you have the Packers who, like the Republicans, have picked out the person who they want to be the leader, and have begun to prepare him for the task. On the other hand you have the Bears who, like the Democrats, can’t commit to a leader, and the candidates for the role have to fight each other to win it.

The Packers will go into training camp committed to one guy — Aaron Rogers — and no matter what else has to be worked out for the team, the quarterback will spend his time preparing to lead his team and win games. Meanwhile, the Bears will spend the majority of their off-season distracted by multiple quarterbacks competing; whoever wins out will be underprepared, and he will be second-guessed all season.

So what’s my point? If the Democrats or the Bears want to have a chance of winning, they need to make a commitment to one person, stop the in-fighting, and start preparing to win because their opponents — the Republicans and the Packers — are already formulating their strategies to win.

I just read this post at StrongLifts.com, linking to a video of Jamie Gallentine’s recovery after a massive spinal injury. Mehdi (the author) asks readers what they would do if they had suffered the same punch in the face.

I’m reminded of the book Think and Grow Rich, by Napoleon Hill. The book’s recurring theme is simply that people are only successful when they refuse to accept failure. All of the most successful people have faced huge setbacks, but instead of accepting failure as their lot in life, they pushed on.

There are equally inspiring recovery stories in the NFL — one of my favorite topics. When you see a guy like Willis McGahee getting his knee destroyed, it’s easy to say, “well that’s it… he’s done,” but anyone who watched him run this season with the Ravens knows that he was far from finished. Some might say that any recovery is great, and that returning to NFL level is an astounding achievement. I disagree. I say that the achievement is just par for the course — typical of the kind of drive and commitment that made him a candidate for the NFL in the first place.

Vince Lombardi get’s the credit for saying, “winners never quit, and quitters never win.” But the idea has been known by successful people throughout history. Michael Jordan had more missed baskets than most players. Brett Favre holds a record for interceptions thrown. Thomas Edison had 1000 light bulbs that didn’t work.

Are you a winner? Or have you already given up?

I’ve been truly inspired recently by the events that have transpired for a coworker. (I’ve chosen not to mention names or link to pages, in case there’s anything he doesn’t want to be public yet.) The excitement and the passion that this guy brought to the workplace are what really convinced me to take this job, and it has been the most exciting and most rewarding job so far in my career.

He was already a senior manager at an international corporation before he was 30 years old, and this wasn’t his first prestigious job title. By many people’s standards, he’s already a winner. But instead of resting on his laurels, this guy still wanted more. He invested every spare moment into another project, working into the morning hours for his own successful venture whenever he wasn’t in the office, working for someone else’s.

Recently he was contacted by a major player in the industry related to his project, wanting to buy it out. But instead of settling for the easy pay day, he took what was behind door #2: an even bigger position (vice president) at the company in question, where he will oversee all their new efforts as they integrate his product into their line.

Most of us realize that if we want more we have to work for more, but few of us ever accept that we do, in fact, want more. It’s so easy to take the new position, or the new title, or the new pay raise, and then sit back with our feet up, feeling like we’ve lived the good life. If you want to get to the top, you have to keep climbing.

I consider myself fortunate to have seen someone set an example of what that looks like.

The free market is a funny thing. You know, all that hubbub they taught in school, supply and demand and what-not. Well, it seems like many Americans have lost sight of how it works. That, or else they never understood it to begin with. Let me explain…

In a free market economy there are two factors that determine the value of an item, and neither one is the price tag. Those two factors are supply and demand. When there is a large supply of something it’s value is lower, whereas when there is a short supply the item’s rarity makes it more valuable. Similarly, when there is high demand for an item its value is higher, whereas when there is little or no demand the item is practically worthless.

Supply and demand can also work with or against each other. For a desirable item, a reduction in the supply can drive up the demand, such as in the case of a rare coin or an autographed Mickey Mantle card. In contrast, an increased supply can drive down the demand, like what happens in fashion when everybody has a Coach purse so now Coach purses aren’t all that special anymore.

It tends to work the other way too. Decreased demand will eventually lead to a reduced supply, because there is no point in manufacturing or stocking an item that people do not want. And likewise, when demand increases, supply tends to increase because sellers do not want to miss out on the opportunity to profit from the demand.

So what does this have to do with the housing bubble? Well, here’s how it works.

Population continues to increase, so there’s always a steady increase in demand for housing, and this (along with inflation) tends to have a steady effect of increasing the value of homes.

The demand for homes affects the supply, because when more people want a home than the number of people who have a home, builders see an opportunity to profit so they build more homes.

This trend tends to be gradual over time, increasing and decreasing at times corresponding to events that affect population and finance, such as wars and recessions, but otherwise — when adjusted for inflation — it tends to stay pretty constant.

If you look at the graph provided, you’ll see a major dip at the beginning of World War I. From there, the line stays pretty constant through the depression years, and then climbs back out steeply in the boom years after World War II. There were two small peaks in the ’70s and ’80s, shooting up over 20%. But then, at the very end of the chart, you’ll notice that our current housing market is almost 100% above its actual value!

In the ’90s, demand for homes outpaced supply, so home values increased. Builders saw an opportunity for profit and started building more homes. Homeowners saw the same opportunity for profit and sold their homes, upgrading to larger dwellings. Entrepreneurs also saw the opportunity, and they started “flipping”.

These (and other) factors combined to create momentum. Builders become sellers. Sellers become buyers. Renters become buyers. Entrepreneurs become buyers and sellers. The bubble grows. Then, in 2001, the worst businessman in history becomes the worst president in history, trumpeting the “American dream of home ownership”, creating huge tax breaks for homeowners. Instead of subsiding, the bubble grows bigger and faster.

Supply kept growing — eventually, the demand had to subside. And it has. People aren’t buying any more. Demand is down and supply is up, so the value must decrease.

Reality hasn’t struck quite yet, but it’s coming. The market value of the average house today is almost double what the house is actually worth. A wise buyer in today’s market would pay no more than half the market price for a home.

What goes up must come down. All peaks are followed by plummets. If you’re selling, don’t waste time. Draw attention. Drop your price until somebody buys, and then cut your losses. The longer you hold on, the more you’re going to lose.

After 17 amazing years, nine Pro Bowl appearances, two Super Bowls, and rewriting every meaningful record in the book, Brett Favre is hanging up his helmet.

There have been other great quarterbacks and there will be more. There have been amazingly accurate, high-percentage passers, and plenty of guys with more than one ring. But none of them was ever as much fun to root for as Brett Favre.

His absence will be felt on Sundays for a long time. (And what will John Madden talk about now? Just food, I guess.)