NFL predictions for week 4
This week’s theme is coaching. The difference between good teams and bad teams is often as simple as the coach. It’s particularly interesting to note the effect of a coach’s win-loss record, as well as that of his overall experience as a head coach.
Houston at Atlanta
Bobby Petrino (0-3) can’t be blamed for his losses. The Vick media circus started his head coaching career on the wrong foot. Still there may be a possibility of Atlanta putting some wins together after Byron Leftwich takes over, but that’s not going to happen yet, and they’re not going to beat a Texans team that wants to make a new identity for itself under head coach Gary Kubiak (8-11).
New York Jets at Buffalo
Buffalo has a lot of problems, but the first step to fixing them is replacing lackluster coach Dick Jauron (43-61). Eventually the Bills will get their first win, but with Thomas Jones heating it up and Pennington having a some success, I don’t see them beating Eric Mangini (11-8) and his Jets this week.
Baltimore at Cleveland
Tough call. Equally mediocre teams, these two. Romeo Crennel (11-24) has shown no talent for leading a team, while Brian Billick (77-54) has led his team to a Super Bowl victory. I’m going to go with the Ravens.
St. Louis at Dallas
It’s hard to watch St. Louis be this awful, when they’ve got the talent to be so good. It really comes down to coaching. They were great under Vermeil, they were good under Martz, and now they’re not even a football team any more thanks to Scott Linehan (8-11). No contest. The Cowboys have a winning coach in Wade Phillips (51-39).
Chicago at Detroit
Lovie Smith (30-21) was losing coaching stock in my opinion — and probably that of his players, too — until he finally made the decision to bench “Wrecks”. They’re banged up now, and starting a second-string quarterback, but I think the Bears have what it takes to beat the Lions whose coach, Rod Marinelli (5-14) is the latest of the Tony Dungy crew to land a head coaching position.
Oakland at Miami
This is an almost meaningless matchup of rookie coaches, pitting Cam Cameron (0-3) against Lane Kiffin (1-2). With the iced kick last week, I see that Lane Kiffin learns quick. I’ve insisted for three weeks that Daunte Culpepper was the missing element for Oakland, who do have something the Dolphins don’t have — a win. If Kiffin is the quick-study he appears to be, he’ll stick with Culpepper and the Raiders will win.
Green Bay at Minnesota
Another battle of young coaches puts Mike McCarthy (11-8) against Brad Childress (7-12), but one team has the best quarterback in the game. Win lose or draw, Brett Favre is going to set history on Sunday. That should lift an emotional athlete like Favre to step up his game and lead the Packers to their fourth win.
Pittsburgh at Arizona
The Cardinals looked good last week with Kurt Warner passing, but that has more to do with him having been the backup than it does with him having been Kurt Warner. Teams don’t game plan for the backup, but rookie head coach Ken Wisenhunt (1-2) hasn’t learned that yet. Bill Cowher (149-90), the longest tenured coach in the league, will have Pittsburgh ready for fumble-fingers Warner. I predict not only a Steelers victory, but at least one fumble and one interception for Warner.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
John Fox (46-37) and his Carolina team seem to be in a rut right now, while Jon Gruden (79-68) and the Bucs are really heating it up behind Garcia. I expect the Buccaneers to improve to 3-1 and take the lead in their division.
Seattle at San Francisco
Another talented team looking amiless right now is Seattle, but Mike Holmgren (149-94) won’t stand for that. The 49ers don’t look much better, and Mike Nolan (13-22) doesn’t seem to have the answer. Both teams are at 2-1, but the Seahawks looked better in getting there.
Denver at Indianapolis
Tony Dungy (117-62) and Peyton Manning has has Denver’s number for a few years now. Until Mike Shanahan (133-82) and the Broncos figure out how to beat the Colts, their season is going to keep ending in Indianapolis.
Kansas City at San Diego
This is a matchup of two underachieving teams, both with superstar running backs who have yet to make any noise this year. Both teams are suffering from poor coaching. Herm Edwards (49-50) is the definition of mediocrity, and Norv Turner (59-84-1) is a consummate loser, capable of turning a 14-2 team into a 1-2 team. The more talented team is San Diego and they’re at home, so I’m going with the Chargers to win.
Philadelphia at New York Giants
The Giants look about as average as their coach, Tom Coughlin (94-85). Meanwhile, Andy Reid (81-50) and his Eagles always figure out how to get things on track.
New England at Cincinnati
For all his lobbying to get a head coaching job, and all the hype that surrounded him in his first two years, Marvin Lewis (36-31) has done a surprisingly mediocre job of leading the Bengals. Not so in New England, where Bill Belichick (114-81) has his Patriots rolling over the competition, even if they have to cheat to do it.
Tags: football